Adapting to Climate Variability: The Role of Environmental Factors in Crop Yield Stability in Turkiye

Abstract

This study examines the effects of key climatic factors—temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO₂—on the yields of two crops in Turkiye: barley and peas. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology with time series data from 1981 to 2020, we investigate both short-term and long-term relationships between these environmental variables and crop yields. Our findings reveal that barley yields exhibit a cointegration relationship with climatic factors, indicating a stable long-term equilibrium, while pea shows no such enduring association, suggesting it is more sensitive to short-term fluctuations. The results underscore the resilience of barley in adapting to sustained environmental changes, contrasting with the immediate but transient responses observed for peas. These findings have important implications for agricultural management and policy, particularly in addressing crop-specific adaptation strategies under increasing climatic variability. Policies focused on enhancing soil health, optimizing irrigation, and promoting climate-resilient crop varieties could help bolster food security and agricultural sustainability in Turkiye. Future research could further explore adaptive measures and examine other region-specific variables that might influence crop yield dynamics in the context of a changing climate.