Determination of the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in the Porsuk Creek Watershed
Abstract views: 11 / PDF downloads: 11
Keywords:Climate Change, Plant-Climate Model, WOFOST Model, Porsuk Creek Watershed, Wheat
The wheat is one of the main agricultural products that will be affected by climate change. The aim of the study is to determine the effect of climate change on wheat yield in Porsuk Creek Watershed. In this study, wheat yield analyzes in the Porsuk Creek watershed had been conducted using the past (2016-2017) and future (2020-2100) climate data produced according to the optimistic (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios of the HadGEM2-ES global climate model, with the help of the WOFOST model. In the Porsuk Creek Watershed, a +23.8% difference for 2016 and a +1.2% difference for 2017 was determined between the observed and predicted by WOFOST model wheat biomass values (2017 values>2016 values and estimated>observed). According to the optimistic scenario results in the watershed, 0.73% wheat yield increase is expected in the near future (2020-2045). In all other remaining periods; it is estimated that there will be a decrease in wheat yields (between 0.43-1.5%). Compared to reference period (1970-2000), the climate change in the creek watershed will occur in the manner of temperature and precipitation increases in the future. As a result, although WOFOST tends to predict wheat yields greater than the observed values, it is thought that the model can be used with confidence to predict future wheat yields. As a result of this study, important data about the planning of wheat agriculture were produced by estimating the plant yield for the use of decision makers.
Anonymous, 2010. Turkey climate change strategy 2010-2020. Environment and Urban Ministry, Ankara, Turkey.
Anonymous, 2018. Climate change projections for Turkey with new scenarios. https://www.mgm.gov.tr/ FILES/iklim/IKLIM_DEGISIKLIGI_PROJEKSIYONLARI.pdf–(Accessed: 04.06.2018)
Atay, M.U. 2015. The impact of climate change on agricultural production in Mediterranean countries. PhD Thesis, Turkey.
Batibeniz, F. 2014. Defining extreme indices by using high resolution regional climate model simulation. MSc Thesis, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey.
Caylak, O. 2015. Examination of possible effects of climate change on wheat growth and yield by a crop-climate simulation model. MSc Thesis, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey.
Cheng-zhi, C., Fang, C.W., Shan, Z.X., Jin, Z., Dan, X., Jian, L.C., Waqar, K., 2020. Yield potential of world wheat based on ARIMA model under global warming. Journal of Agrometeorology 22 (4) : 397-406.
Deveci, H., 2015. Modelling the effect of climate change on surface water resources, soil water profile and plant yield in Thrace region. PhD Thesis, Namik Kemal University, Turkey.
Eitzinger, J., Trnka, M., Hösch, J., Zalud, Z., Dubrovsky, M. 2004. Comparison of CERES, WOFOST and SWAP models in simulating soil water content during growing season under different soil conditions. Journal of Ecological Modelling, 171: 223–246.
Eyni-Nargeseh, H., Deihimfard, R., Rahimi-Moghaddam, S., Bidgoli, A.M. 2020. Analysis of growth functions that can increase irrigated wheat yield under climate change. Meteorological Applications.
GDWM (General Directorate of Water Management) 2016. Impact of climate change on water resources Project: Final report of the project. T.R. Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs, General Directorate of Water Management, Ankara, June, 389.
Gharibdousti, S.R., Kharel, G., Miller, R.B., Linde, E., Stoecker, A. 2019. Projected climate could increase water yield and cotton yield but decrease winter wheat and sorghum yield in an agricultural watershed in Oklahoma. Journal of MDPI-Water, 11:105.
Hamal, K., Sharma, S., Khadka, N., Haile, G.G., Joshi, B.B., Xu, T., Dawadi, B., 2020. Assessment of drought impacts on crop yields across Nepal during 1987–2017. Meteorological Applications.
Isildar, M., 2010. Investigation of changes in corn yield with agricultural drought indices in some provinces of Aegean region. MSc Thesis, Adnan Menderes University, Turkey.
Kapur, B. 2010. Enhanced CO2 and global climate change effects on wheat yield in Çukurova region. PhD Thesis, Çukurova University, Turkey.
Koc, E.M. 2011. Investigation of possible impacts of climate change on agriculture by WOFOST crop climate model. MSc Thesis, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey.
Konukcu, F., Deveci, H., Altürk, B. 2020. Modelling of the effect of climate change on wheat yield in Thrace region with AquaCrop and WOFOST models. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 17(1): 19.
Kumar, Y., Singh, R., Kumar, A. 2021. Performance of SUBSTOR model on growth and yield of potato varieties under different planting dates in a sub-tropical environment. Journal of Agrometeorology 23 (2): 213-220.
Onder, D., Aydin, M., Berberoglu, S., Onder, S., Yano, T. 2009. The use of aridity index to assess implications of climatic change for land cover in Turkey. Turk Journal of Agriculture Forest 33: 305-314.
Palosuo, T., Kersebaum, K.C., Angulo, C., Hlavinka, P., Moriondo, M., Olesen, J.E., Patil, R.H., Ruget, F., Rumbaur, C., Takac, J., Trnka, M., Bindi, M., Caldag, B., Ewert, F., Ferrise, R., Mirschel, W., Saylan, L., Siska, B., Rötter, 2011. Simulation of winter wheat yield and its variability in different climates of Europe: A comparison of eight crop growth models. European Journal of Agronomy, 35 (2011): 103– 114.
Polat, K., 2017. The role of good agricultural practices for mitigation and adaptation with climate change in ramsar sites: Case study in Goksu delta. PhD Thesis, Ankara University, Turkey.
Quiring, S.M., Papakryiakou, T.N. 2003. An evaluation of agricultural drought indices for the Canadian prairies. Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 118(2003): 49–62.
Saris, F. 2016. Low flow analysis in Porsuk Creek Basin. Istanbul University Faculty of Literature Journal of Geography 33: 73‐81.
Sen, Z. 2016. Course Notes. “Drought, Modeling, Forecasting, Combating and Planning Methods Short Course”. Water Foundation, Istanbul, (Course Date: 2016, May 23-26).
Singh, M.C., Pal, V., Singh, S., Satpute, S. 2021. Wheat yield prediction in relation to climatic parameters using statistical model for Ludhiana district of central Punjab. Journal of Agrometeorology, 23(1): 122-126.
Taher, D.S., Hussian, M.A., Khalaf, A.A. 2017. Wheat varieties production under different irrigation levels utilizing Aquacrop model in semiarid condition of Duhok –Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iraqi Journal of Agricultural Sciences –1347-1355: (5) 48.
Tie-cheng, B., Tao, W., Nan-nan, Z., You-qi, C., Mercatoris, B. 2020. Growth simulation and yield prediction for perennial jujube fruit tree by integrating age into the WOFOST model. Journal of Integrative Agriculture. 19(3): 721–734.
Tran, T.M.A., Eitzinger, J., Manschadi, A.M. 2020. Response of maize yield under changing climate and production conditions in Vietnam. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology (3):73-84.
United States Department of Agriculture-USDA, 2019. World Agricultural Production: April 2019. United States Department of Agriculture. https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdf (Accessed:06.05.2019)
Yesilkoy, S., Saylan, L. 2020. Assessment and modelling of crop yield and water footprint of winter wheat by aquacrop. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology (3): 3-14.
Yildirim, M.U., Demircan, M., Ozdemir, F.A., Sarihan, E.O. 2016. Effect of Climate Change on Poppy (Papaver somniferum L.) Production Area. Journal of Field Crops Central Research Institute, 25 (Special issue-2):289-295.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2022 ISPEC Journal of Agricultural Sciences
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.